Monday, January 13, 2014

Obama's Nuclear Deal with Iran

Open email to:
Rep. Michael McCall, Chairman House Committee on Homeland Security Sen. Tom Carper, Chairman Senate Committee on Homeland Security

Dear Rep. McCall and Sen. Carper,
Let's start with certainties on the Iranian situation.
1. Iran is incapable of arriving at an agreement which they will hold to.
2. It will be impossible to stop Iran from developing an atomic weapon in the long run. We can only hope to slow them down in their efforts. Similarly, any country with sufficient resolve and assets can develop an atomic weapon. The technology is known and is not terribly complicated.
3. The slowing process for atomic weapon development in Iran is based upon sanctions. The greater the sanctions, the less Iranian public support the Iranian government will have. Oil income for atomic weapon development is their greatest asset.

Now, for the best course of action. 
1. Sanctions. The US has increased oil supply and has little need for Iranian oil. Not so true with respect to some other industrial countries not endowed with such good local resource. In view of that, it is difficult to obtain international cooperation on sanctions, but the question to other countries is whether they are now willing to face a little discomfort on less or higher-priced oil to gain a decrease in an Iranian atomic threat.
2. Revert to the Mutually Assured Destruction policy (MAD), which was used so successfully against the Soviet Union during the Cold War. In effect that policy was that if you send an atomic weapon our way, we will retaliate. The increase retaliation on both sides, with unlimited atomic weapons, would lead to both countries and perhaps the world being destroyed.
Fortunately there is a brighter side to this. That is, the US has superior and unlimited atomic capability. Countries other than Russia or China have limited capability. For example, even with a developed atomic weapon and a mode of delivery, Iran could likely deliver only one or two atomic weapons at a time against the US. Retaliation by the US would completely obliterate Iran. It would no longer exist. While damage to the US would be extensive, it would be reversible. It is likely that this knowledge by the North Koreans, presently holds them in abeyance for use of their atomic weapons.

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