Sunday, November 24, 2013

Iranian Nuclear Weapon

pen Email to Senators Bob Corker (TN) and Robert Menendez (NJ):
 
Dear Senators Corker and Menendez,

 Jesus is mentioned many times as saying, "Verily, verily, I say unto you". Translated, this means, "What I'm telling you is really true, and I mean true". The reason Jesus says it in that way is because he lived in Middle Eastern culture, where basic lying was an accepted practice. That culture has not changed in modern times, and Iranians are probably the biggest liars of all. I say this because the application of terms of the new treaty proposal formulated by Kerry and European associates will require considerations of trust.
 While Sec. Kerry has negotiated the terms in consultation with Pres. Obama, it is the constitutional duty of the Senate to approve a treaty by a two thirds vote. That vote has yet to come up, and we might consider some of the details of the treaty proposal before the Senate votes on it.


 1. Iran has been concentrating on enriching natural uranium to increase the concentration of the fissionable isotope U-235 and in producing plutonium 239, both of which are usable in producing an atomic bomb. It is said that there are two uranium enrichment plants plants with 19,462 centrifuges usable for the enrichment process. The agreement would allow 10,000 of these centrifuges to continue to be used.
 Comment: Operating 10,000 centrifuges will continue to produce enriched uranium. It would take longer if 19,462 centrifuges were used. Continued enrichment could be starting with natural uranium to shoot for 5% U-235, which is usable in nuclear energy production plants. Or, continued enrichment could start with the 5% U-235 already in stock to produce 85% U-235, which is required for an atomic bomb. The literature also reports that a crude, inefficient weapon could be produced from 20% U-235.

 2. Iran may continue to enrich uranium, but the U-235 concentration of the product must be below 20%.
 Comment: This would allow Iran to continually increase its stock of partially enriched uranium, which would further reduce the time for a larger quantity of further enriched uranium, if there is a later cancellation of the agreement.

 3. Iran will convert its stockpile of 20% U-235 enriched uranium to oxide.
 Comment: The enrichment process uses a compound of uranium, known as uranium hexafluoride. The hexafluoride is chemically converted to uranium metal, which is required for the atomic bomb. Conversion of uranium hexafluoride to uranium oxide is a similar chemical operation, which is many times simpler and productive in volume than the original separation of the uranium isotopes using centrifuges. A large quantity of enriched uranium oxide could be converted to uranium metal for a bomb in a matter of a few months.

 4. Iran will not increase its stock of 5% U-235 uranium, but if it does, the new material will be converted to the oxide.
 Comment: This is gobbledygook wording. In the 1st place, Iran is allowed to continue to operate 10,000 centrifuges. If they are not allowed to produce 5% U-235 uranium for power plant use, what will they be producing? But, if they are not allowed to produce and then produce, the material must be converted to oxide. We have already covered the simplicity of chemical conversions from hexafluoride to oxide to metal and back.

 5. Iran has a completed plutonium (Pu-239) at 
Arak. Iran will not fuel or commission this plant and will halt any essential work on the plant.
 Comment: Pu-239 is an alternative ingredient for an atomic bomb. In effect, the producing plant at Arak will be in standby condition and likely be able to operate in production of Pu-239 for an atomic weapon in a matter of a few months after termination or the ignoring of an agreement.

 6. International Atomic Energy Inspectors will be allowed to visit Iran's nuclear plants on a daily basis.
 Comment: Presumably the IAE inspectors will ask Iranian authorities for arrangements to visit specific plants. What about a secret plants unknown to the IAE inspectors? The wording of this section may also be very significant. "Visit" may mean to the Iranians that the inspectors may come to a visitor's office, where they will have tea and discussions. It may not mean at all that the inspectors would have an opportunity to inspect facilities. The Iranians are also masters at deception. It may be too rainy. The lights may be out. They may have had a minor accident and radioactivity is little too high. And, numerous other excuses.

 Senators, US culture is based on English culture, wherein truth is truth, black is black, and white is white. Iranian culture involves truth as whatever is convenient and where there are an indeterminate number of shades of gray. It is basically for this reason that the Middle East is in constant turmoil. Middle Eastern's do not trust each other, having no confidence in their word.
 Our problem is that we tend to look at other cultures on the assumption that they are similar to ours. Sec. Kerry may mean well, but he does not understand Middle Eastern culture. Therefore, any attempt he makes to establish an atomic weapon treaty with Iran is always doomed to failure. However, all is not lost. Iranians do understand practicality. If there are no centrifuges, no stocks of any kind of enriched uranium, and no plutonium plant, then it will be clear that they will not be developing an atomic weapon.
 The Iranians have come to the negotiating table because the present economic sanctions are hurting them, and they think that with their usual doubletalk they can gain some headway. Based on the tentative deal now structured, they are completely correct in that assumption. However, the economic sanctions are not hurting us, and we have no reason to reduce them. In fact, with the application of additional sanctions, it is likely that we can completely eliminate the Iranian nuclear threat.
 It is difficult to fathom the reasoning behind the Obama administration's operations. I have proposed that Sec. Kerry and possibly Pres. Obama are naïve in understanding Middle East culture. But, I doubt that is the complete picture. It is likely that Pres. Obama is trying to take the news media heat off his Obamacare program by distractions, which could include this Iran nuclear treaty and the recent change in Senate rules.
 I specifically appeal to you to not approve of the Iran nuclear deal as previously established. It will not only accomplish nothing to impede Iran in their effort to obtain a nuclear weapon, but I believe it will actually assist them.

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